Pike (Cool Springs) Plan

Bryant, AR 72022

$54,995D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 546 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 326 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,023/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax + insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$465
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $-37/mo
• Annual: $-439/yr
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.85%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 1.86%
• Cash to close: $15,399

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-37 ($-439/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $50k (9.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• It's been on market 326 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#16 in AR, #4,487 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Bryant School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #16 of 238 in AR (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bryant Elementary School (math 53% / reading 42%, grade D, #116 of 454 statewide, top 26%, 771 students, 51% FRL); Bryant Middle School (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D, #58 of 201 statewide, top 30%, 786 students, 63% FRL); Bryant High School (math 32% / reading 50%, grade F, #43 of 292 statewide, top 15%, 2,199 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 32% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 45% of rent.
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 446 units permitted in Saline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saline County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.9% in Bryant — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 326 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.