2927 Becket St

Pearland, TX 77584

$229,500D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,325 sqft · Built 1983 · SingleFamily · Pending · 131 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,112/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,204
• Tax + insurance: −$523
• HOA: −$21
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-79/mo
• Annual: $-947/yr
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.47%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $64,260

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-79 ($-947/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (8.0% below list).
• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#32 in TX, #1,539 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Pearland ISD (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #47 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 497 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.0% in Pearland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.