20 3rd St

Marysville, CA 95901

$599,000C

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,296 sqft · Built 1930 · MultiFamily · Pending · 54 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,962/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,141
• Tax + insurance: −$577
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,672
• Net cashflow: $2,571/mo
• Annual: $30,858/yr
• Cap rate: 11.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.40%
• DSCR: 1.82
• 1% rule: 1.33%
• Cash to close: $167,720

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 4-bed/4.0-bath units multifamily listed at $599k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($31k/yr) — positive. Per door: $643/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $599k).
• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($581k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $581k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#293 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Marysville Joint Unified (suburban): math 14% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #455 of 517 in CA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 254 active listings in the ZIP; 750 units permitted in Yuba County in 2024 (41 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yuba County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $168k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 3.7% in Marysville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $7,962/mo this rent would consume 137% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 1190% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.