Plan 1702 Modeled Plan

Hitchcock, TX 77563

$230,995F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,702 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 530 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,808/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,362
• Tax + insurance: −$433
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $-366/mo
• Annual: $-4,396/yr
• Cap rate: 4.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.05%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $72,711

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $231k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-366 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (10.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (21.7% below list).
• It's been on market 530 days — a 12% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $181k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#560 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Hitchcock ISD (suburban): math 28% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #628 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hitchcock Pri (453 students, 85% FRL); Crosby Middle (math 25% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 410 students, 84% FRL); Hitchcock H S (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 470 students, 77% FRL).
• Market conditions: 451 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 38d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 2.0% in Hitchcock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 530 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.