2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,351 sqft ·
Built 1998
· Condo
· Active
· 114 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,297/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,192
Tax + insurance
−$1,123
HOA
−$630
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$902
Net cashflow
$-550/mo
Annual
$-6,599/yr
Cap rate
5.94%
Cash-on-cash
-1.27%
DSCR
0.94
1% rule
1.03%
Cash to close
$117,012
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $418k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-550 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $338k (19.0% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $418k).
It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($380k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $338k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Lely Elementary School (math 45% / reading 46%, grade D-, #1,247 of 2,144 statewide, top 59%, 499 students, 62% FRL); Manatee Middle School (math 61% / reading 43%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 749 students, 64% FRL); Lely High School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 1,504 students, 54% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 46% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Collier average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 986 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.4% in Naples — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $4,297/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 21% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
CashFlowRE · CFR-T7ZF6EC7GJVV90
· Data 14 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29