2009 Joslin St

Alice, TX 78332

$49,999B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1982 · SingleFamily · Active · 307 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,065/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $432/mo
• Annual: $5,181/yr
• Cap rate: 16.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.01%
• DSCR: 2.65
• 1% rule: 2.13%
• Cash to close: $14,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $432 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 307 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#558 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Alice ISD (town): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #799 of 826 in TX (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Adams Middle (math 10% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 1,029 students, 84% FRL); Alice H S (math 9% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 1,290 students, 77% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Market conditions: 297 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6 units permitted in Jim Wells County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jim Wells County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.7% vs local median 4.1% in Alice — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 307 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — Significant wear and tear visible in the satellite image.
• Moderate: siding — Discoloration and minor damage observed.
• Major: landscaping — Overgrown and in need of maintenance.