2609 Henley Way

Mansfield, TX 76084

$469,950D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,106 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 171 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,279/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,464
• Tax + insurance: −$993
• HOA: −$76
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$689
• Net cashflow: $-943/mo
• Annual: $-11,315/yr
• Cap rate: 3.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.60%
• DSCR: 0.62
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $131,586

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $470k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-943 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $303k (35.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $328k (30.2% below list).
• It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($414k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $303k (35.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#243 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Mansfield ISD (suburban): math 47% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #125 of 826 in TX (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 426 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.8% in Mansfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.