321 S Pioneer Ave

Lyons, KS 67554

$19,900D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,604 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 93 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,201/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$104
• Tax + insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $811/mo
• Annual: $9,735/yr
• Cap rate: 55.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 174.72%
• DSCR: 8.77
• 1% rule: 6.04%
• Cash to close: $5,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $20k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $811 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($18k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $18k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $597 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#207 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Lyons (town): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #136 of 169 in KS (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Rice County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rice County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.