51 Rocky Point Yaphank Rd #2

Rocky Point, NY 11778

$179,999D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · Built 1970 · Condo · Pending · 215 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,316/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax + insurance: −$300
• HOA: −$850
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $-265/mo
• Annual: $-3,174/yr
• Cap rate: 4.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.30%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 1.29%
• Cash to close: $50,400

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $180k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-265 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $142k (21.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• It's been on market 215 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $142k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#717 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Rocky Point Union Free School District (suburban): math 67% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #152 of 590 in NY (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Joseph A Edgar Imtermediate School (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 592 students, 37% FRL); Rocky Point Middle School (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B, #161 of 729 statewide, top 24%, 638 students, 36% FRL); Rocky Point High School (math 93% / reading 70%, grade A, #484 of 1,100 statewide, top 44%, 923 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 35% FRL vs 19% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 37% of rent.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $117k; list at $180k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.6% in Rocky Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 215 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?