964 Grange Rd

Strawberry, AR 72521

$63,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 2015 · Manufactured · Under Contract · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,154/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$330
• Tax + insurance: −$230
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $351/mo
• Annual: $4,210/yr
• Cap rate: 15.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.39%
• DSCR: 2.44
• 1% rule: 1.83%
• Cash to close: $17,640

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $63k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $351 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $63k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $62k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $436 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#361 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cave City School District (rural): math 38% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #87 of 238 in AR (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cave City Elementary School (math 39% / reading 41%, grade F, #203 of 454 statewide, top 45%, 576 students, 74% FRL); Cave City High Career & Collegiate Preparatory School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #119 of 292 statewide, top 43%, 371 students, 72% FRL, charter).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Sharp County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sharp County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $63k implies a 688% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.