422 Evans Holw

Murphy, NC 28906

$199,900D

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,562 sqft · Built 1990 · SingleFamily · Pending · 138 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,455/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$191
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $-90/mo
• Annual: $-1,076/yr
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.92%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-90 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (27.2% below list).
• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $146k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#292 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cherokee County Schools (rural): math 42% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #90 of 178 in NC (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Martins Creek Elementary/Mid (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #694 of 1,410 statewide, top 53%, 184 students, 98% FRL); Murphy High (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #311 of 535 statewide, top 60%, 489 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 56% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1130 active listings in the ZIP; 232 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cherokee County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.6% in Murphy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.