3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,846 sqft ·
Built 1993
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 146 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,696/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,206
Tax + insurance
−$174
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$356
Net cashflow
$-40/mo
Annual
$-475/yr
Cap rate
6.09%
Cash-on-cash
-0.74%
DSCR
0.97
1% rule
0.74%
Cash to close
$64,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-40 ($-475/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (3.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (26.2% below list).
It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $170k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#20 in AL, #4,262 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Olive J Dodge Elementary School (math 6% / reading 35%, grade F, #453 of 627 statewide, top 72%, 875 students, 67% FRL); Burns Middle School (math 4% / reading 30%, grade F, #201 of 257 statewide, top 79%, 710 students, 67% FRL); Wp Davidson High School (math 36% / reading 41%, grade F, #37 of 305 statewide, top 12%, 1,535 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 65% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 557 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.9% in Mobile — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-TAT488A09JRW6W
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29