2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
919 sqft ·
Built 1946
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 65 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,063/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$551
Tax + insurance
−$149
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$223
Net cashflow
$140/mo
Annual
$1,676/yr
Cap rate
7.89%
Cash-on-cash
5.70%
DSCR
1.25
1% rule
1.01%
Cash to close
$29,400
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $140 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $99k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $96 of equity ($726 loan paydown + $-630 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
Location reads 57/100 on livability (#378 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Brighton School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #566 of 627 statewide, top 90%, 365 students, 89% FRL); Pleasant Grove High School (math 0% / reading 18%, grade F, #260 of 305 statewide, top 85%, 729 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 49% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 250 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
Current owner paid $26k; list at $105k implies a 296% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 5.9% in Hueytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-TB6SC7B4271AYG
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29