3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,241 sqft ·
Built 1979
· Condo
· Active
· 110 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,775/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$682
Tax + insurance
−$208
HOA
−$476
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$373
Net cashflow
$37/mo
Annual
$441/yr
Cap rate
6.63%
Cash-on-cash
1.21%
DSCR
1.05
1% rule
1.37%
Cash to close
$36,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $130k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $37 ($441/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $118k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#123 in VA, #4,018 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: crime F, commute F.
Newport News City Public School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #112 of 131 in VA (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Richneck Elementary (math 35% / reading 53%, grade F, #851 of 1,108 statewide, top 77%, 558 students, 90% FRL); Ella J. Fitzgerald Middle (math 41% / reading 57%, grade C-, #238 of 342 statewide, top 71%, 1,060 students, 87% FRL); Woodside High (math 54% / reading 86%, grade B+, #151 of 319 statewide, top 49%, 1,807 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 55% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.9%/yr); 213 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 522 units permitted in Newport News city in 2024 (458 in 5+ unit buildings).
Newport News County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
Current owner paid $80k; list at $130k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.2% in Newport News — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
CashFlowRE · CFR-TBQC031YQCV6A6
· Data 18 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29