3840 N 43rd Ave #57

Phoenix, AZ 85031

$90,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,243 sqft · Built 1975 · Townhouse · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,498/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax + insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$370
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $264/mo
• Annual: $3,167/yr
• Cap rate: 9.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.57%
• DSCR: 1.56
• 1% rule: 1.66%
• Cash to close: $25,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $264 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Phoenix Union High School District (4286) (urban): math 10% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #224 of 249 in AZ (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Glenn L. Downs Social Sciences Academy (math 10% / reading 21%, grade F, #864 of 1,109 statewide, top 78%, 692 students, 80% FRL); Maryvale High School (math 8% / reading 14%, grade F, #292 of 381 statewide, top 77%, 2,795 students, 88% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.