519 Davis St

Manistee, MI 49660

$78,000B-

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,290 sqft · Built 1890 · SingleFamily · Active · 88 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,317/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax + insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $543/mo
• Annual: $6,517/yr
• Cap rate: 14.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.84%
• DSCR: 2.33
• 1% rule: 1.69%
• Cash to close: $21,840

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $78k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $543 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $78k).
• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $73k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $539 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#103 in MI, #2,543 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment D+, commute F.
• Manistee Area Public Schools (town): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #284 of 540 in MI (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Thomas Jefferson Elem School (259 students, 62% FRL); John F Kennedy Elem School (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #744 of 1,397 statewide, top 57%, 279 students, 60% FRL); Manistee Middle High School (math 30% / reading 44%, grade F, #334 of 713 statewide, top 51%, 687 students, 50% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 109 units permitted in Manistee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manistee County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 12 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $78k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 14.6% vs local median 3.0% in Manistee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.