3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,783 sqft ·
Built 1986
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 48 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,908/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$839
Tax + insurance
−$221
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$401
Net cashflow
$448/mo
Annual
$5,376/yr
Cap rate
9.66%
Cash-on-cash
12.01%
DSCR
1.53
1% rule
1.19%
Cash to close
$44,772
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $448 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $155k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#209 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment D-.
Clayton County (suburban): math 11% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #155 of 174 in GA (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Lake City Elementary School (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #936 of 1,228 statewide, top 79%, 509 students, 90% FRL); Babb Middle School (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #249 of 470 statewide, top 55%, 888 students, 90% FRL); Forest Park High School (math 8% / reading 16%, grade F, #344 of 424 statewide, top 81%, 1,765 students, 90% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 166 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 865 units permitted in Clayton County in 2024 (448 in 5+ unit buildings).
Clayton County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $64k; list at $160k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 5.2% in Forest Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-TD8WX13XCD4TWH
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29