5389 S Scott Pl

Chandler, AZ 85249

$665,000D-

5 bd · 5.0 ba · 4,015 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Active · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,137/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,487
• Tax + insurance: −$564
• HOA: −$58
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$869
• Net cashflow: $-841/mo
• Annual: $-10,094/yr
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.42%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $186,200

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $665k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-841 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $516k (22.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $414k (37.8% below list).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($645k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $414k (37.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#9 in AZ, #2,508 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, cost of living D-.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Jane D. Hull Elementary (math 45% / reading 56%, grade D+, #261 of 1,109 statewide, top 24%, 529 students, 21% FRL); Chandler High School (math 25% / reading 32%, grade F, #133 of 381 statewide, top 35%, 3,597 students, 46% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 53% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 299 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 11 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $249k; list at $665k implies a 167% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.3% in Chandler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($154k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.