236 Adelaide Dr

Hardin, TX 77327

$134,899B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Active · 297 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,544/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax + insurance: −$515
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $-3/mo
• Annual: $-34/yr
• Cap rate: 10.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.46%
• DSCR: 1.60
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $37,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3 ($-34/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (0.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• It's been on market 297 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $932 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,134 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Tarkington ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #373 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 8336% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.1% in Hardin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 297 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.