2403 E Bogey Dr

Perezville, TX 78572

$87,000C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 413 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Active · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $971/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$456
• Tax + insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$35
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $193/mo
• Annual: $2,314/yr
• Cap rate: 8.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.50%
• DSCR: 1.42
• 1% rule: 1.12%
• Cash to close: $24,360

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $87k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $193 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($971 rent vs $87k).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $601 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#743 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• La Joya ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #759 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Henry B Gonzalez El (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 490 students, 91% FRL); Ann Richards Middle (math 21% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,236 of 1,662 statewide, top 76%, 729 students, 96% FRL); La Joya H S (math 16% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 2,775 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 54% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 852 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $7k; list at $87k implies a 1144% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 94% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 6.9% in Perezville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.