3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,464 sqft ·
Built 2001
· Condo
· Active
· 42 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,576/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,495
Tax + insurance
−$256
HOA
−$320
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$331
Net cashflow
$-826/mo
Annual
$-9,907/yr
Cap rate
2.82%
Cash-on-cash
-12.41%
DSCR
0.45
1% rule
0.55%
Cash to close
$79,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $285k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-826 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (51.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (44.7% below list).
It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $139k (51.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#12 in AL, #3,280 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Madison City (suburban): math 51% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #4 of 129 in AL (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Mill Creek Elementary School (math 61% / reading 77%, grade A-, #29 of 627 statewide, top 5%, 940 students, 22% FRL); Discovery Middle School (math 46% / reading 69%, grade B, #13 of 257 statewide, top 5%, 1,334 students, 25% FRL); Bob Jones High School (math 53% / reading 51%, grade D+, #11 of 305 statewide, top 4%, 1,920 students, 24% FRL).
Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 382 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 4,709 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (1,186 in 5+ unit buildings).
Madison County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($117k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-TERGWH2F00D1QD
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29