28 Oak Tree

Rancho Mirage, CA 92270

$490,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,332 sqft · Built 1987 · Condo · Active · 67 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,572/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,570
• Tax + insurance: −$554
• HOA: −$900
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$960
• Net cashflow: $-412/mo
• Annual: $-4,941/yr
• Cap rate: 5.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.60%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $137,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $490k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-412 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $417k (14.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $457k (6.7% below list).
• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($461k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $417k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,065 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Palm Springs Unified (suburban): math 21% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #328 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 529 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 78% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $259k; list at $490k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.0% in Rancho Mirage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,572/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($107k/yr) (locally 498% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.