312 N Howard St

Grapeland, TX 75844

$49,996B+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Pending · 565 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,080/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $474/mo
• Annual: $5,690/yr
• Cap rate: 17.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.65%
• DSCR: 2.81
• 1% rule: 2.16%
• Cash to close: $13,999

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $474 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 565 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($346 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#427 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Grapeland ISD (rural): math 28% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #613 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Houston County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 17.7% vs local median 1.1% in Grapeland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 565 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.