Hickory Ridge I A Plan

Flowood, MS 39232

$341,348F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,109 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 668 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,886/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,334
• Tax + insurance: −$742
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $-1,586/mo
• Annual: $-19,030/yr
• Cap rate: 2.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.27%
• DSCR: 0.32
• 1% rule: 0.42%
• Cash to close: $124,610

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $341k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (36.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (44.8% below list).
• It's been on market 668 days — a 12% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $189k (44.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#10 in MS, #3,075 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 157 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.0% vs local median 4.3% in Flowood — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 668 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.