2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
988 sqft ·
Built 1986
· Condo
· Active
· 22 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,865/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,285
Tax + insurance
−$249
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$392
Net cashflow
$-61/mo
Annual
$-728/yr
Cap rate
6.00%
Cash-on-cash
-1.06%
DSCR
0.95
1% rule
0.76%
Cash to close
$68,600
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $245k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-61 ($-728/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (4.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (23.9% below list).
It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $187k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#236 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living C-, amenities F.
Chesapeake City Public School District (suburban): math 58% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #31 of 131 in VA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Deep Creek Elementary (math 66% / reading 72%, grade A-, #351 of 1,108 statewide, top 32%, 763 students, 45% FRL); Hugo A. Owens Middle (math 57% / reading 76%, grade A-, #107 of 342 statewide, top 33%, 1,315 students, 30% FRL); Grassfield High (math 77% / reading 92%, grade A, #23 of 319 statewide, top 8%, 2,314 students, 15% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 184 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 597 units permitted in Chesapeake city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Chesapeake County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $145k; list at $245k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.7% in Chesapeake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29