4102 S Via DE Febrero --

Green Valley, AZ 85622

$270,000C

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,291 sqft · Built 1995 · SingleFamily · Pending · 103 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,622/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax + insurance: −$304
• HOA: −$51
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $300/mo
• Annual: $3,606/yr
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.77%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $75,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $300 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $262k (2.9% below list).
• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $246k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $444 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#165 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Continental Elementary District (4416) (rural): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #72 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $270k implies a 86% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $76k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.5% in Green Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.