1157 Rock Rd

Union, MO 63084

$115,000F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Built 1983 · Manufactured · Pending · 106 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $709/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$149
• Net cashflow: $-113/mo
• Annual: $-1,358/yr
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.22%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-113 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $95k (17.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $71k (38.3% below list).
• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $71k (38.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#210 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, crime D.
• Union R-XI (town): math 38% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #119 of 324 in MO (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Union Middle (math 41% / reading 42%, grade F, #163 of 391 statewide, top 44%, 683 students, 40% FRL); Union High (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #247 of 521 statewide, top 55%, 1,011 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 137 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 614 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (100 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Franklin County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.6% in Union — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 11% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.