2946 Duke Ter

The Villages, FL 32163

$465,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,661 sqft · Built 2011 · SingleFamily · Active · 108 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,952/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,439
• Tax + insurance: −$464
• HOA: −$204
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $-775/mo
• Annual: $-9,298/yr
• Cap rate: 4.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.14%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $130,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $465k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-775 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $328k (29.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (36.5% below list).
• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($423k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $295k (36.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $50k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $46k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wildwood Elementary School (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 940 students, 76% FRL); South Sumter Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 897 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 269 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $360k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$80k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.