49 Lake St

Stamford, NY 12167

$180,000A-

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,920 sqft · Built 1898 · SingleFamily · Active · 338 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,781/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax + insurance: −$444
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$584
• Net cashflow: $810/mo
• Annual: $9,715/yr
• Cap rate: 11.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.27%
• DSCR: 1.86
• 1% rule: 1.55%
• Cash to close: $50,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $810 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $180k).
• It's been on market 338 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#574 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Stamford Central School District (rural): math 40% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #675 of 755 in NY (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1898 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Delaware County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Delaware County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $180k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 5.3% in Stamford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 338 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1898 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.