8 Mary Ct

Ocean Acres, NJ 08005

$149,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Active · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,899/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$248
• HOA: −$754
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$609
• Net cashflow: $506/mo
• Annual: $6,074/yr
• Cap rate: 10.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.56%
• DSCR: 1.65
• 1% rule: 1.95%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $149k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $506 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $149k).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#425 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Barnegat Township School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #285 of 472 in NJ (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Market conditions: 253 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 8 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $149k implies a 181% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 3.2% in Ocean Acres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.