J-10 Avon

Twin Rivers, NJ 08520

$153,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 868 sqft · Built 1968 · Condo · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,842/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$802
• Tax + insurance: −$255
• HOA: −$553
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $-156/mo
• Annual: $-1,866/yr
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.36%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 1.20%
• Cash to close: $42,840

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $153k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-156 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $130k (14.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $153k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($151k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $130k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#387 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Windsor Regional School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #287 of 472 in NJ (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Perry L. Drew Elementary School (math 21% / reading 41%, grade F, #710 of 1,303 statewide, top 55%, 579 students, 40% FRL); Melvin H. Kreps Middle School (math 15% / reading 52%, grade F, #265 of 431 statewide, top 63%, 1,176 students, 40% FRL); Hightstown High School (math 14% / reading 53%, grade F, #251 of 399 statewide, top 64%, 1,644 students, 36% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 9 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.