1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
650 sqft ·
Built 1975
· Condo
· Pending
· 311 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$5,412/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,858
Tax + insurance
−$975
HOA
−$1,562
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,136
Net cashflow
$-1,119/mo
Annual
$-13,434/yr
Cap rate
3.97%
Cash-on-cash
-8.28%
DSCR
0.63
1% rule
0.99%
Cash to close
$152,600
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $545k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $541k (0.7% below list).
It's been on market 311 days — a 12% lower offer ($480k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $480k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $24k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (3.7% local appreciation)).
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 29% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 309 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 4,467 units permitted in New York County in 2024 (4,463 in 5+ unit buildings).
New York County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
10 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $90k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($148k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 311 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
CashFlowRE · CFR-THZQB55ZKT02VV
· Data 6 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29