16 bd · 4.0 ba ·
3,240 sqft ·
Built 1927
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 31 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,476/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$656
Tax + insurance
−$75
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$940
Net cashflow
$2,805/mo
Annual
$33,661/yr
Cap rate
33.22%
Cash-on-cash
96.18%
DSCR
5.28
1% rule
3.58%
Cash to close
$35,000
Investor read
This is a 4 × 3-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $125k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($34k/yr) — positive. Per door: $701/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $125k).
It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $2k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $674 appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Walbridge Elem. Community Ed. (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,099 of 1,115 statewide, top 100%, 128 students, 98% FRL); Vashon High (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #520 of 521 statewide, top 100%, 568 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 80% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 33.2% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $4,476/mo this rent would consume 153% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 555% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
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· Data 57 min agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29