449 Spillway Rd

Shokan, NY 12491

$179,900D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · Built 1949 · SingleFamily · Pending · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,165/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax + insurance: −$246
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $-269/mo
• Annual: $-3,228/yr
• Cap rate: 4.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.41%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $50,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-269 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (26.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (35.2% below list).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $117k (35.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#888 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Onteora Central School District (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #288 of 755 in NY (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Onteora High School (math 92% / reading 90%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 413 students, 44% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 91% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+32 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Onteora Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 1.9% in Shokan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.