18403 University Park Dr

Livonia, MI 48152

$169,900D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built 1974 · Condo · Active · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,806/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$151
• HOA: −$405
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $-21/mo
• Annual: $-247/yr
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.52%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $47,572

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21 ($-247/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $166k (2.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#116 in MI, #2,784 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, health & safety D, commute F.
• Livonia Public Schools School District (urban): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #77 of 540 in MI (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hoover Elementary School (math 72% / reading 72%, grade A-, #51 of 1,397 statewide, top 5%, 500 students, 17% FRL); Holmes Middle School (math 42% / reading 65%, grade C+, #86 of 493 statewide, top 18%, 656 students, 25% FRL); Stevenson High School (math 51% / reading 72%, grade B-, #66 of 713 statewide, top 9%, 1,636 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 22% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.9% in Livonia — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?