3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
2,220 sqft ·
Built 2005
· MultiFamily
· Pending
· 27 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,554/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,415
Tax + insurance
−$392
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$536
Net cashflow
$211/mo
Annual
$2,528/yr
Cap rate
7.23%
Cash-on-cash
3.35%
DSCR
1.15
1% rule
0.95%
Cash to close
$75,572
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath multifamily listed at $270k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $211 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (5.4% below list).
It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $255k (5.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#490 in PA, #4,504 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
Jersey Shore Area SD (town): math 41% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #179 of 539 in PA (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Lycoming County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lycoming County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.0% in Jersey Shore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
CashFlowRE · CFR-TJXV7CC2QWBJN8
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29