1038 28th St

Newport News, VA 23607

$194,900B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Built 1925 · MultiFamily · Active · 409 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,185/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax + insurance: −$261
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $443/mo
• Annual: $5,320/yr
• Cap rate: 9.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.21%
• DSCR: 1.50
• 1% rule: 1.12%
• Cash to close: $54,572

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $443 ($5k/yr) — positive. Per door: $222/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• It's been on market 409 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#123 in VA, #4,018 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Newport News City Public School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #112 of 131 in VA (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 522 units permitted in Newport News city in 2024 (458 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Newport News County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-0.8% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 4.2% in Newport News — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,185/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($42k/yr) (locally 2008% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 409 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?