3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,508 sqft ·
Built 2017
· Land
· Pending
· 81 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,053/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,232
Tax + insurance
−$278
HOA
−$17
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$431
Net cashflow
$95/mo
Annual
$1,141/yr
Cap rate
6.78%
Cash-on-cash
1.73%
DSCR
1.08
1% rule
0.87%
Cash to close
$65,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $235k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $95 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (12.6% below list).
It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $205k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 78/100 on livability (#7 in OK, #2,691 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
Broken Arrow (suburban): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #79 of 270 in OK (top 29%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Highland Park Es (math 41% / reading 33%, grade F, #132 of 845 statewide, top 19%, 698 students, 0% FRL); Oneta Ridge Ms (math 25% / reading 26%, grade F, #84 of 345 statewide, top 26%, 924 students, 0% FRL); Broken Arrow Hs (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #120 of 447 statewide, top 27%, 4,589 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 33% district-wide (33 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 655 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 581 units permitted in Wagoner County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Wagoner County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $156k; list at $235k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.0% in Broken Arrow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-TKQJEDDPK7KH53
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29