115 Acorn Hill Rd

Shokan, NY 12461

$229,888B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Built 1974 · Manufactured · Active · 175 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,177/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$383
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$667
• Net cashflow: $921/mo
• Annual: $11,056/yr
• Cap rate: 11.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.18%
• DSCR: 1.76
• 1% rule: 1.38%
• Cash to close: $64,369

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $230k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $921 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $230k).
• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#888 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Onteora Central School District (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #288 of 755 in NY (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Onteora High School (math 92% / reading 90%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 413 students, 44% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 91% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+32 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Onteora Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (1.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 1.8% in Shokan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — Significant water damage and possible leaks
• Major: exterior siding — Severe peeling and damage
• Major: interior flooring — Worn and possibly damaged
• Major: interior walls/paint — Peeling paint and signs of wear
• Major: windows — Old and possibly not functioning properly
• Major: foundation/structure — Signs of settling and possible structural issues