1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
767 sqft ·
Built 1960
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 306 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,656/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,127
Tax + insurance
−$358
HOA
−$755
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$558
Net cashflow
$-143/mo
Annual
$-1,711/yr
Cap rate
5.50%
Cash-on-cash
-2.84%
DSCR
0.87
1% rule
1.24%
Cash to close
$60,200
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-143 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (9.6% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $215k).
It's been on market 306 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $189k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Is 61 William A Morris (math 22% / reading 57%, grade F, #418 of 729 statewide, top 59%, 932 students, 84% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 265 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 480 units permitted in Richmond County in 2024 (22 in 5+ unit buildings).
Richmond County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 306 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
CashFlowRE · CFR-TM356W1FKMAN7M
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29