14204 Arwood Rd

Disputanta, VA 23842

$190,000B-

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,645 sqft · Built 1954 · MultiFamily · Pending · 100 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,458/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$186
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $760/mo
• Annual: $9,119/yr
• Cap rate: 11.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.14%
• DSCR: 1.76
• 1% rule: 1.29%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $760 ($9k/yr) — positive. Per door: $380/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $173k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Prince George County Public School District (rural): math 67% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #16 of 131 in VA (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: David A. Harrison Elementary (math 73% / reading 74%, grade A, #258 of 1,108 statewide, top 23%, 486 students, 54% FRL); J.E.J. Moore Middle (math 61% / reading 71%, grade A-, #113 of 342 statewide, top 33%, 1,393 students, 33% FRL); Prince George High (math 70% / reading 82%, grade A-, #102 of 319 statewide, top 32%, 1,796 students, 31% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Prince George County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Prince George County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $140k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 53% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 2.4% in Disputanta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.