1 N Cherry Ln

Rumson, NJ 07760

$2,550,000F

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,130 sqft · Built 1942 · SingleFamily · Active · 62 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $13,910/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$13,372
• Tax + insurance: −$2,440
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,921
• Net cashflow: $-4,824/mo
• Annual: $-57,883/yr
• Cap rate: 4.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.11%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 0.55%
• Cash to close: $714,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $2.55M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-58k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.70M (33.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.39M (45.5% below list).
• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($2.40M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.39M (45.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $18k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $76k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#326 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Rumson-Fair Haven Regional High School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #82 of 612 in NJ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $200k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $1.45M; list at $2.55M implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.