10 Shell Rd

Buckhead Ridge, FL 34974

$69,900B+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 592 sqft · Built 1984 · Condo · Active · 95 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,108/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$158
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $247/mo
• Annual: $2,965/yr
• Cap rate: 10.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.15%
• DSCR: 1.67
• 1% rule: 1.59%
• Cash to close: $19,572

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $247 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $64k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#785 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Glades (town): math 38% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #63 of 73 in FL (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 402 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Glades County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Glades County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $70k implies a 218% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 5.2% in Buckhead Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.