18543 Cyclone Branch Rd

Burlington, TX 76519

$190,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,838 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Active · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,304/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$392
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $-358/mo
• Annual: $-4,302/yr
• Cap rate: 4.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.09%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-358 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $127k (33.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (31.4% below list).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (33.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Rogers ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #343 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rogers El (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 419 students, 52% FRL); Rogers Middle (math 31% / reading 42%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 178 students, 47% FRL); Rogers H S (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 280 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.