415 Main St Unit 10E

New York, NY 10044

$699,000D-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 682 sqft · Built 2009 · Condo · Active · 416 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,473/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,666
• Tax + insurance: −$426
• HOA: −$1,281
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,149
• Net cashflow: $-1,049/mo
• Annual: $-12,584/yr
• Cap rate: 4.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.43%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $195,720

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $699k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $514k (26.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $547k (21.7% below list).
• It's been on market 416 days — a 12% lower offer ($615k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $514k (26.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (3.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 31 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,467 units permitted in New York County in 2024 (4,463 in 5+ unit buildings).
• New York County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $81k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,473/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) (locally 1319% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 416 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?