223 Jonathan Dr

Stamford, CT 06903

$2,250,000F

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 4,813 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Active · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,312/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$11,799
• Tax + insurance: −$2,734
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$905
• Net cashflow: $-11,127/mo
• Annual: $-133,519/yr
• Cap rate: 0.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -21.19%
• DSCR: 0.06
• 1% rule: 0.19%
• Cash to close: $630,000

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $2.25M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11k ($-134k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $431k (80.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $431k (80.8% below list).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($2.18M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $431k (80.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $16k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $68k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#98 in CT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Stamford School District (urban): math 32% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #103 of 153 in CT (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Roxbury School (math 33% / reading 33%, grade F, #354 of 553 statewide, top 64%, 562 students, 53% FRL); Westhill High School (math 33% / reading 50%, grade F, #102 of 194 statewide, top 53%, 2,265 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 1,151 units permitted in Western Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (714 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 11 sale attempts since 30y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $200k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $1.55M; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 0.4% vs local median 3.0% in Stamford — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 81% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.