2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
594 sqft ·
Built 1973
· Condo
· Pending
· 90 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,974/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$734
Tax + insurance
−$516
HOA
−$415
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$415
Net cashflow
$-105/mo
Annual
$-1,258/yr
Cap rate
9.05%
Cash-on-cash
9.85%
DSCR
1.44
1% rule
1.41%
Cash to close
$39,200
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $140k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-105 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $121k (13.2% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $121k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Poinciana Elementary School (math 64% / reading 63%, grade B, #564 of 2,144 statewide, top 27%, 507 students, 55% FRL); Gulfview Middle School (math 78% / reading 68%, grade A, #44 of 571 statewide, top 8%, 582 students, 40% FRL); Naples High School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 1,719 students, 39% FRL).
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 21% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 334 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $111k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
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· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29