418 Birch Street St

Westwood, CA 96137

$146,000A-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 340 sqft · Built 1940 · MultiFamily · Pending · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,714/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$766
• Tax + insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$570
• Net cashflow: $1,214/mo
• Annual: $14,563/yr
• Cap rate: 16.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.62%
• DSCR: 2.59
• 1% rule: 1.86%
• Cash to close: $40,880

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath multifamily listed at $146k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $146k).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($137k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $137k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#547 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Westwood Unified (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #995 of 1,400 in CA (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Lassen County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lassen County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.