2669 Darwin Ln

Shields, MI 48603

$233,000D-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,558 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,579/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,222
• Tax + insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $-204/mo
• Annual: $-2,444/yr
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.75%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $65,240

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $233k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-204 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (15.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (32.2% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $158k (32.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#59 in MI, #1,310 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Saginaw Township Community Schools (suburban): math 27% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #265 of 540 in MI (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.7%/yr); 156 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.