3625 NW County Road 3127

Dawson, TX 76679

$79,900B+

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,580 sqft · Built 1988 · SingleFamily · Pending · 250 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,212/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax + insurance: −$159
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $380/mo
• Annual: $4,555/yr
• Cap rate: 11.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.36%
• DSCR: 1.91
• 1% rule: 1.52%
• Cash to close: $22,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $380 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 250 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#493 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Blooming Grove ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 522 units permitted in Navarro County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Navarro County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (2.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 50% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 250 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.